Who’s Afraid of a Recession?
Certainly not fledgling entrepreneurs.
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The economy is crumbling and consumer spending is down. Politicians argue endlessly about the dismal outlook for small business if the downturn continues, if taxes go up, if banks don’t loan money freely. The only people who don’t seem overly concerned about these issues are entrepreneurs. In fact, 75 percent of small business owners say they’re confident about the future, according to a recent survey from the National Small Business Association. Even the most tenuous of businesses — restaurants — are still opening their doors and hoping customers will take a seat. Just ask Amanda Cohen.
When I approached her in early October as the stock markets gyrated from record highs to record lows, Cohen was standing in the middle of a narrow room watching a half-dozen workers shuffle across the floor, carrying boxes and tool kits. She shifted from one foot to the other, twisting a rope of her brown hair. Just one week later, the 350-square-foot space in New York City’s East Village became Dirt Candy, an 18-seat vegetarian eatery, complete with a plush orange banquette and walls made from recycled material, where Cohen serves creations like jalapeno hush puppies with maple butter and portobello mousse with fennel peach compote.
Cohen spent 10 years in vegetarian kitchens throughout the city, including Heirloom, Pure Food & Wine, and Teany, preparing for the day she’d get her own place. She decided to take the leap in July 2007 just as the markets erupted into economic turmoil, the kind of turmoil that inevitably hits the restaurant industry hard. But the poor economy didn’t keep Cohen from moving forward. “I don’t have a choice,” she says. “I can’t not open now. It doesn’t matter what the economy is like.” Cohen isn’t alone in her determination. Indeed, 47 percent of restaurant operators plan to increase capital expenditures for equipment and expansion, according to a report from the National Restaurant Association. And if they are in the least representative of entrepreneurs in general, it bodes well for the economy’s resilience, since small businesses are the crucible for economic growth and job creation.
So why would anyone start a business now? Because, although it may seem irrational, the drive that leads an entrepreneur to start a business isn’t just money. He doesn’t give up his day job, take on debt, and work long hours because he’s examined the business landscape and decided that it’s the most auspicious moment in terms of taxes, the economy, easy credit, or low interest rates. Some of the most successful companies today started during recessionary times, including Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft, and Walt Disney Corporation, according to Eye on Leander, a Texas-based small business publication. Starting a business is a dream, an idea the entrepreneur is convinced will succeed. Whether it does depends, of course, on such predictable measures as an ample supply of capital, the number of employees required, and the owner’s education. But it would appear that entrepreneurs have found ways to generate optimism when it comes to their dreams, according to an October report from the National Federation of Independent Business. And that optimism flies in the face of the politicians and pundits who continue to warn of grave dangers to America’s small businesses if there is a protracted recession.
Warnings of a recession didn’t stop Cohen. She opened her restaurant because she’d always dreamt about it. “What I really wanted to do with my life was cook,” she says. She knew she’d have to start small and keep overhead to a minimum. With rent around $2,000 per month, she figures that she needs to serve 25 to 30 customers a night, a doable goal even though consumer spending has dropped. Still, the road to success isn’t assured — between 30 percent and 50 percent of new businesses fail in the first year. “It’s like walking a tightrope without a net,” says Aaron Alder, the founder and CEO of Quantified Marketing Group, a Florida-based restaurant marketing and public relations firm. “It doesn’t mean you can’t do it; it just means it’s a lot riskier.” Cohen seems aware of that reality. “This place isn’t going to make millions of dollars,” she says, referring to Dirt Candy. “But you don’t walk away from a restaurant a millionaire.” You walk away with your dreams in tact.
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