How long can the luxury denim trend last?

A recent New York Times profile I read about a small Los-Angeles based premium denim company got me thinking about high-end denim and how much longer it will remain popular.

Back in the '80s, nothing came between Brooke Shields and her Calvins. But at what point, or even what price, will consumers still be willing to buy premium denim? Is $200 too much for a pair of jeans or in 10 years will that sound like a bargain?

The latest data from the NPD Group, a Port Washington, N.Y.-based market research company, shows that the premium denim trend is still hot, at least for now. Despite a supposed slump in consumer spending, there still seems to be an audience for these pricey pairs. The Times reports:

Despite rumors of a luxury denim bubble, the business shows few signs of slowing down. In 2007, denim priced at more than $100 a pair, much of it produced here in Los Angeles, was the fastest-growing category of jeans in department stores. Men’s premium denim sales rose 45 percent and women’s 24 percent, according to NPD Group, a market research firm, while sales of jeans under $50 fell for both sexes.

Other stories, such as this one in the Washington Post tell a different story about expensive jeans:

"Premium denim doesn't seem to be so elite as it once was," says Jackie Flanagan, owner of D.C. boutique Nana. Indeed, high-end jeans are so ubiquitous that it's easy to forget that Sevens didn't even exist 10 years ago. Now the brand shares shelf space with Blue Cult, True Religion, Citizens of Humanity, Paige and a dozen more labels most shoppers would struggle to distinguish.

The Post's author, Suzanne D'Amato, certainly has a point. An old press release from Cotton Inc. says that more than 300 premium denim labels were selling in the marketplace in 2005, so who knows how many more have entered the fray in the two years since then. I would estimate there are at least a hundred more, if not a lot more than that.

However, I think some luxury denim brands distinguish themselves from others, 7 For All Mankind and True Religion being two. Both of these companies have expanded beyond being just a high-end jean label. They are now lifestyle brands. A simple click on the "Licensees" tab on the True Religion site shows that the company has also gone into perfume and swim wear, among other things.

On the other hand, 7 for All Mankind has developed most of its extended product line in-house. The company now sells outerwear, T-shirts, button down shirts and handbags that go along with denim pieces (which include skirts, blazers, vests, overalls and other things). The company also has a licensed shoe collection, too, that lands in stores this season.

Investors have taken interest in both True and 7 as well, allowing each company to expand and open branded stores. True has locations in major fashion hubs like Chicago, New York and Los Angeles. 7 for All Mankind, which was recently bought by VF Corp. (which also owns Wrangler and Lee denim), will open its own shops in the near future too.

As in any competitive market, only the strong survive. In the luxury denim arena, I think that only the recognizable names, who have investor money, branded store presence and outside retail support, will last in the end. Other start-up brands (like Bread, the company mentioned in the Times piece) could very well fade away unless they find a way to differentiate themselves from True and 7, who have made themselves out to be the 800-pound gorillas of the group.