The Cost of Diplomatic Recognition

Only 48 out of the 53 African countries attended the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing last weekend. The five absentees were Malawi, Swaziland, Gambia, Burkina Faso and Sao Tome and Principe, all of whom refused their invitations due to their diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, also known as the Republic of China.

In the run up to the summit which focussed largely on promoting bilateral trade, media coverage implied that leaders in the five countries might well have been considering Beijing’s invitation to attend as observers, but as the Taiwanese Government Information Office's website reported:

The [Taiwanese] ministry [of Foreign Affairs] … alerted Taiwan's embassies in the five African countries and reminded the diplomatic allies that it would not be appropriate to send representatives to attend the conference in Beijing.

This reminder might well have been necessary, as the summit promised to provide some tempting economic incentives for African countries to intensify trade with China.

Officials anticipated that 2,500 business deals would be discussed over the three days. The Wall Street Journal reported that agreements were expected to expand imports from Africa, remove tariffs on more African goods, as well as increase:

pledges for more aid, including training in everything from medicine to agriculture, and investment in Africa. [Assistant Foreign Minister] Mr. Zhai said the government is actively encouraging Chinese companies to expand their business in Africa.

Far from the buzz of the summit, Taiwan’s five diplomatic allies might well have spent the weekend pondering what they were missing out on. They wouldn’t be the first to seriously consider the advantages of shifting their diplomatic allegiance from the Republic to the People's Republic. In fact they could be among the last.

This test of Taiwan’s African friends came in the wake of oil-rich Chad switching sides in August. Chad is the sixth country in as many years to make the diplomatic move over to China due to economic incentives. As Reuters reported:

Beijing and Taipei often trade insults over which is using "dollar diplomacy" in the form of offers of aid or cheap loans to curry influence around the world.

Some countries have used this to their advantage, threatening to suspend ties with one side or the other should a demand for money be refused.

Niger and Taiwan renewed relations in 1992, causing a break in the African country's ties with China, but winning Niamey a $50-million Taiwan loan. Niger went back to Beijing in 1996.

In 1998, Taiwan lost the Central African Republic -- which has switched sides a record six times -- and Guinea Bissau after turning down loan requests. Then Taiwan Foreign Minister Jason Hu said Guinea Bissau asked for a "huge amount of financial aid -- so large that we had to tell them that we couldn't possibly handle it alone".

The Republic of China’s attempt to compete with the economic immensity of The People’s Republic China may appear to be a losing battle, but for the moment at least, Taiwan has kept its five remaining African allies onside. All of which begs the question: what deal did Taiwan strike in order to maintain these allegiances?