Recount: A Magazine of Contemporary Politics

The Democrats and Congress: It's Not What It Seems...

By Patrick Mulvaney | Nov 12, 2004 Print

It’s often the case that political circumstances are not quite as they seem, especially in the wake of a contentious election.  The current state of affairs on Capitol Hill presents a prime example of this phenomenon.  On November 2, aside from retaining the presidency until 2008 and the power to dictate the ideology of the Supreme Court for an undetermined period of time, the Republican Party secured firm control of both chambers of Congress until 2006. 

For Democrats and progressives of all stripes, the Senate and House election results were traumatic, earth-shattering developments—in some cases even more so than those of the presidential contest—carrying the potential to alter the course of the nation so dramatically so as to jeopardize many of the social gains of the past five decades.  But in reality, the situation in the federal legislature isn’t actually what it seems.

It’s much, much worse.

In the Senate elections, the Republicans picked up four seats nationwide, ousted the Democratic minority leader in South Dakota, and scored victories for vehemently anti-gay candidates in Oklahoma and South Carolina.  In the House campaigns, they picked up a handful of seats in Texas and expanded their caucus to more than 230, a forceful majority in the 435-member chamber.  And with President Bush in the White House, the conservative ideologues of these legislative bodies are likely to have their way this term—which could not only threaten the separation of church and state and federal programs such as Social Security, but also many of the civil rights and civil liberties protections that have been in place for more than a generation.

But beyond the fact that the Republicans’ congressional victories will have a major influence on politics and policy during the 109th Congress, the hidden reality is that they will likely extend that influence far beyond the terms they cemented on that dark Tuesday just one week ago.

Of course, the normal chicken soup for the non-Republican soul in times like these is that there will always be future elections—that is, barring a constitutional amendment to ban them—and that the GOP’s fear of losing those will prevent the government from falling off a conservative cliff.  But unfortunately, the future elections factor is practically irrelevant in this case, because the midterm elections of 2006 are already looking exceptionally grim for the Democratic Party.

This, of course, is not because President Bush is likely to gain widespread support for his ill-fated policies in next two years, but rather because the Democrats’ window of opportunity—that is, the number of competitive seats up for grabs on Capitol Hill—is already essentially determined for 2006, and it’s extremely small.

On the Senate side, where the Republicans now hold a 55-45 majority (with regard to caucusing—Jim Jeffords, the Vermont independent, caucuses with the Democrats), 33 seats will be contested in 2006.  One would expect, given the numbers, that more Republican incumbents would be on the ballot, fighting to hold their seats.  But that’s not the case.  In fact, the Democrats will be defending 18 seats (some of which will be open due to retirements) to the Republicans’ 15, making major gains for the opposition party extremely unlikely. 

And in the House, although all 435 seats will be in the hands of the voters in 2006—with the Democrats needing to gain 14 seats from the Republicans to capture the chamber—an overwhelming majority will almost certainly not be in play.  In this past election, according to the Center for Voting and Democracy, 416 of the 435 House races were noncompetitive, or decided by victory margins of more than ten percentage points.  This, of course, is far from a coincidence; it’s the obvious result of political gerrymandering, which has secured a frighteningly high number of congressional seats for the Republican Party in recent years.  So regardless of how the nation’s political mood evolves, it will be extremely difficult for the Democrats to make sizable gains in the House in the near future. 

Simply put, the Republicans in Congress have an extremely slim chance of losing control of either chamber in 2006, which gives them the freedom to embark on an archconservative agenda with essentially no fear of repercussions.  Add to that the legislative direction of President Bush, who never has to run for office again, and there it is: a completely unchecked Republican majority.

So the Democrats’ current situation in Congress—now characterized by defeat, dejection, and definite minority status until 2006—isn’t really what it seems.  It’s much, much worse.

Patrick Mulvaney can be reached at .

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